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IATA Forecasts Passenger Demand to Double Over 20 Years Without Protectionism

October 24, 2016

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, a near doubling of the 3.8 billion air travelers in 2016. The prediction is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR). However, IATA denounces the negative effects of protectionism on the growth outlook.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, a near doubling of the 3.8 billion air travelers in 2016. The prediction is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR). However, IATA denounces the negative effects of protectionism on the growth outlook.

IATA estimates that 7.2 billion passengers will travel by air in 2035. It is almost twice the 3.87 billion air travelers on the international flights. The CEO of IATA, Alexandre Juniac states; “People want to fly. The demand for air travel over the next two decades is expected to double. ”

The forecast for passenger growth confirms that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected to be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years. China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market; India will displace the UK for third place, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy.

 

The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, The Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar).

This growth will only be possible if trade liberalization is gaining speed (average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%). However, if the current protectionist trend was gaining strength, demand could slow down accordingly and the CAGR will be 2.5% in 2035.

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